Bitcoin is back above $63,000, and the market’s attention is not on the halving or interest rates, but on Washington.
According to global crypto market tracker CoinGecko, Bitcoin was trading at $63,183 as of 9 a.m. on the 10th. After falling to the $62,000 range the previous day, it regained the $63,000 level.
CoinDesk reported that the U.S. Senate is expected to release a new draft of the Clarity Act, a digital asset market structure bill, as early as next week. Supporters of the bill are said to be continuing negotiations with the goal of bringing it to a Senate floor debate later this month. Analysts say news that the draft is nearing release has revived investor sentiment.
◆ Security or commodity? Resolving 15 years of gray area
The Clarity Act’s formal name is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. As the name suggests, clarity is the key issue. It seeks to answer one question: are virtual assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum securities like stocks, or commodities like gold and crude oil?
This classification matters because the supervisory agency and regulations would change entirely. If it is a security, the SEC oversees it; if it is a commodity, the CFTC does. Until now, the United States has regulated the market through a post hoc enforcement approach, punishing violations after problems arise, without clear standards.
Companies did not know what rules they had to follow, and investors faced the risk that their holdings could one day be classified as unregistered securities. The Clarity Act is an attempt to shift this approach toward preemptive classification. Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are more highly decentralized, are seen as having a strong chance of being established as digital commodities rather than securities.
The bill’s legislative progress shows its significance. It passed the House in July last year. In May, the Senate Banking Committee approved it by a vote of 15 to 9. The result came with support from all Republicans as well as Democratic senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks. The remaining steps are consolidation with a bill from the Agriculture Committee, a Senate floor vote, and a second House vote.
◆ The key to unlocking pension fund money
The reason the market is so focused on this bill is institutional capital. Asset managers such as BlackRock can already buy Bitcoin directly, but U.S. public pension funds remain cautious. Some only hold it indirectly through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The issue has been how to explain, under fiduciary responsibility, an asset whose legal nature remains unclear rather than its profitability.
Professor Oh Moon-sung of Hanyang Women’s University’s Department of Tax and Accounting said the Clarity Act could mark an institutional turning point, making pension funds view Bitcoin not merely as an asset they can “buy,” but as one they can legally justify “holding.” Hong Sung-wook, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, identified tokenization and stablecoins as beneficiaries of the bill, naming Robinhood, Coinbase, and Circle as related listed companies.
There is also skepticism. Right after the Banking Committee passed the bill in May, market views were split between the idea that a structural shift in institutional inflows had begun and the idea that the rally could simply be a liquidity-driven move based on expectations.
Critics say lower barriers through regulation do not necessarily mean money will actually flow in. There is also internal opposition from the industry. Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, publicly criticized the original draft, saying that provisions such as banning stablecoin interest make “no law better than a bad law.”
◆ The 60 votes tied to ethics provisions
The biggest sticking point is the ethics provision. Democrats are demanding clauses to prevent conflicts of interest in crypto business activities by high-ranking public officials, including the president. The request is linked to the Trump family’s involvement in crypto businesses. Many Democratic lawmakers say they would find it difficult to support the final bill if this provision is removed.
The numbers are the problem. To overcome a filibuster and pass the bill in the Senate, 60 votes are needed. Republican seats alone are not enough, so Democratic support is essential. Senators such as Elizabeth Warren have maintained opposition, saying that reducing SEC authority could weaken investor protection. How much of the ethics provisions and investor safeguards are included will be the key content of next week’s draft.
For investors, the key takeaway is clear: the factor moving prices right now is not technology but the legislative calendar. Prices could swing at every milestone, from the draft release to the end-of-month Senate debate and a second House vote. Next week’s draft will be the first test of whether passage in July is possible, and a preview of which direction Bitcoin in the $60,000 range may move.
