Anthropic’s IPO Valuation Drops from $2 Trillion to $1.5 Trillion Despite Quarterly Revenue of $16.8 Billion

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By Global Team

Key points

▶ Anthropic, which is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO), disclosed third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion at an investor presentation at its San Francisco headquarters on Oct. 14 (local time).

▶ Revenue rose 45% from the previous quarter, and adjusted operating profit was positive for a second consecutive quarter, Reuters reported on Oct. 15, citing multiple sources.

▶ Investors focused on the pace of growth. Revenue more than doubled from $4.7 billion in the first quarter to $11.6 billion in the second, but growth slowed to 45% in the third quarter. Some investors are discussing a valuation of about $1.5 trillion, 25% below the $2 trillion initially floated.

Anthropic Claude CEO Dario Amodei (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)
Anthropic Claude CEO Dario Amodei (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

AI company Anthropic has presented its financial results ahead of a planned IPO, drawing mixed reactions from investors. Reuters reported on Oct. 15 (local time), citing multiple sources, that Anthropic disclosed third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion at an IPO investor presentation held at its San Francisco headquarters on Oct. 14. Revenue was up 45% from the previous quarter, and adjusted operating profit—excluding stock-based compensation—was positive for a second consecutive quarter.

The figures look strong on their face. They partly ease concerns about the seemingly endless cost of developing AI. But investors were focused on something else: how quickly revenue is growing.

More than doubling, then slowing to 45%

Anthropic’s quarterly revenue was $4.7 billion in the first quarter, $11.6 billion in the second and $16.8 billion in the third. Revenue more than doubled in the second quarter alone, thanks to surging demand for Claude Code, its coding assistant. Growth in the third quarter was 45%. That is still a high rate, but less than half the roughly 140% growth rate in the previous quarter.

Lower usage during the summer and increased competition were cited as factors behind the slowdown. OpenAI released a new model in September, and Anthropic responded with Claude Opus 5.5 at the end of the month.

Anthropic also reportedly told investors that revenue related to “distillation”—the practice of other AI companies using Claude’s outputs to train their own models—accounts for 5% to 7% of total revenue and is expected to decline.

Investors were also disappointed that the company did not provide an annualized revenue figure or a full-year forecast in September. Its annualized revenue in July was reported to be $65 billion.

As a result, some investors are discussing a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, 25% below the $2 trillion initially floated by investment banks. Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in its Series H funding round in May. Even a $1.5 trillion valuation would represent a 55% increase in five months.

November listing, with up to $100 billion in fundraising being discussed

Anthropic confidentially filed IPO paperwork with the SEC on June 1. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are leading the offering, which is planned for Nasdaq.

The fundraising target was said to be more than $20 billion in September, but figures of up to $100 billion have recently been discussed. These are still under negotiation. The company initially planned to go public in October, but the schedule has slipped. The most likely plan is to begin trading after the Nov. 3 midterm elections and before Thanksgiving on Nov. 26. Year-end is another possibility.

Market conditions are unfavorable. High inflation and interest rates, negative public sentiment toward AI, security incidents and a prolonged price war in AI are all seen as risks for the timing of the IPO. Investors worry that a lukewarm response to Anthropic’s listing could hurt the broader AI market. The IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI, which is expected to go public next year, are seen as factors that could shape the AI market’s near-term outlook.

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by Dario Amodei and others who left OpenAI. Amazon and Google are major investors. The company’s revenue for 2025 was about $4.6 billion. Its third-quarter revenue this year was 3.6 times its total revenue for all of last year.