Key takeaways
▶ According to FnGuide’s consensus estimates, Samsung Electronics is expected to post third-quarter operating profit of 110.2803 trillion won, while SK hynix is forecast to earn 78.0577 trillion won. Together, that amounts to 188.338 trillion won. Samsung is expected to exceed 100 trillion won in quarterly operating profit for the first time in its history. Preliminary results are expected to be announced on October 7 or 8.
▶ The way memory chips are traded is changing. Instead of negotiating for lower prices, customers are signing long-term contracts and putting down cash to secure supplies years in advance.
▶ On September 30 (local time), Micron reported quarterly revenue of $54.23 billion and an operating margin of 80.7%. The funds customers committed under long-term contracts rose by $10 billion in a single quarter to $32 billion, most of it in cash deposits.
Memory-chip buyers are putting money down upfront instead of trying to negotiate prices lower. They fear that unless they secure supplies now, they will be unable to build AI data centers several years from now.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are forecast to post combined operating profit of around 188 trillion won in the third quarter. Samsung is expected to exceed 100 trillion won in quarterly operating profit for the first time in its history.
Samsung at 110 trillion won, SK hynix at 78 trillion won
According to financial data provider FnGuide, as of the end of last month the consensus estimate for Samsung Electronics’ third-quarter operating profit was 110.2803 trillion won. That is about 23% higher than the 89.4924 trillion won recorded in the previous quarter. SK hynix’s estimate was 78.0577 trillion won, about 29% above the previous quarter’s 60.5426 trillion won. Combined, the two companies are expected to earn 188.338 trillion won.
Brokerage estimates vary somewhat. IBK Investment & Securities forecast Samsung Electronics’ operating profit at 101.7 trillion won; DS Investment & Securities projected 104 trillion won for Samsung and 70 trillion won for SK hynix; and BNK Investment & Securities estimated 108.5 trillion won for Samsung and 72.1 trillion won for SK hynix. These more conservative forecasts factor in a decline in the won-dollar exchange rate and slower growth in memory prices. Even so, the broad outlook remains the same: Samsung in the 100-trillion-won range and SK hynix in the high-70-trillion-won range.
Memory chips are driving the earnings growth. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has surged with investment in AI servers, while prices remain strong for server DRAM, enterprise SSDs and general-purpose DRAM used in mobile devices and PCs. Market researcher TrendForce forecasts that average selling prices for conventional DRAM will rise 13% to 18% in the third quarter from the previous quarter, while NAND flash prices will increase 10% to 15%.
Micron: “81 cents of every dollar in revenue is profit”
U.S.-based Micron has already offered a glimpse of how far the memory market has come. On September 30 (local time), the company reported revenue of $54.23 billion (about 75.1 trillion won) for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, covering June through August.
Revenue was up 30.8% from the previous quarter and about 4.8 times higher than a year earlier. Operating profit was $43.75 billion (about 60.6 trillion won), with an operating margin of 80.7%. That means about 81 cents of every dollar in revenue remained as operating profit.
Micron’s outlook for the next quarter is even stronger. The company forecast revenue of around $61.5 billion (about 85.2 trillion won) for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and a gross margin of approximately 86.25%. The forecast signals that Micron expects high prices and profitability to continue even after its record results.
Cash deposits instead of price negotiations
More significant than the earnings figures is how customers are securing supplies. The financial commitments Micron customers made in connection with long-term supply agreements rose by $10 billion in a single quarter, from $22 billion in June to $32 billion. Micron said most of the commitments are cash deposits. Rather than waiting for prices to fall, customers are tying up money to secure supply.
Contracts have also grown longer. Micron’s remaining performance obligations (RPO)—the value of contracts already signed but not yet fulfilled—increased from about $100 billion to around $150 billion (about 207.75 trillion won). This means that a substantial portion of supply volumes and pricing terms for the coming years has already been set. That is a departure from the memory industry’s usual practice of renegotiating prices every quarter.
Micron said that more than 75% of its 2027 output is already committed under customer contracts. Most discussions with customers have shifted to 2028 supply. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said, “Supply and demand for memory and storage will be much tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026,” adding that it is difficult to predict when supply and demand will reach balance.
The company expects demand from AI data centers to outpace supply growth for the time being, since even once new factories begin operating, it takes time for them to meaningfully increase supply.
HBM is consuming DRAM capacity
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix face the same supply-and-demand environment. One point to watch is how HBM production is also constraining the supply of conventional DRAM.
At a corporate briefing during Korea Premium Week 2026 on September 29, Samsung Electronics Vice President Kim Tae-woo forecast that HBM’s share of total wafer production capacity across the global DRAM industry would rise from about 20% currently to around 30% in 2027.
HBM and conventional DRAM use the same wafer-production capacity. The more HBM manufacturers produce, the less capacity remains available for conventional DRAM.
Past memory booms followed a familiar pattern: prices rose, manufacturers expanded capacity, and the resulting increase in supply sent prices tumbling. Now, HBM is absorbing existing DRAM capacity, while customers are locking in supplies years ahead through long-term contracts. Analysts say the cycle of rising prices, capacity expansion and oversupply may be changing.
Samsung is earning strong profits from conventional DRAM while increasing HBM4 supplies in an effort to regain HBM market share. Industry watchers say the operating margin of Samsung’s DRAM business could exceed 80% in the third quarter.
SK hynix is leveraging its leading position in HBM to capture a broad range of AI data-center memory demand, including server DRAM and enterprise SSDs. Expanded HBM4 supply and long-term supply agreements are seen as factors that will make its earnings more predictable.
A weaker won, slower price growth and capacity expansion are also factors
There are reasons for caution as well. The average won-dollar exchange rate in the third quarter was lower than the market had expected, and memory-price increases slowed compared with the second quarter. Some brokerages have recently lowered their earnings forecasts for both companies. In the medium to long term, PC and smartphone makers may also adjust the amount of memory in their products to reduce the burden of sharply higher prices.
Capacity expansion is another factor. Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron are increasing investment in production facilities to meet demand for AI memory. Once the new capacity begins to bring substantial volumes to market, the current advantage held by suppliers could weaken.
For now, the market’s attention is expected to remain on demand that exceeds supply. If Samsung Electronics and SK hynix meet market expectations in their third-quarter results and reaffirm the tight supply outlook beyond 2027, it would bolster the view that the AI-driven memory boom has moved beyond soaring prices and into a contest to secure long-term supply. Samsung is expected to announce its preliminary third-quarter results on October 7 or 8.