Google researchers have officially warned that the computational resources required to decode Bitcoin encryption with quantum computers have significantly decreased compared to previous estimates.
Security researchers now see a more than 10% possibility that the so-called ‘Q-Day,’ where encryption systems could be neutralized by 2032, could become a reality. While it is not an immediate crisis, experts unanimously agree that meeting that day without preparation could result in catastrophic consequences.
The encryption that protects Bitcoin wallets could be cracked sooner than expected. Google researchers recently warned in a blog post that “quantum computers could break the security foundations of cryptocurrencies and digital infrastructure much sooner than anticipated.” A scenario once considered theoretically possible is now one step closer to becoming a reality.
The core target of the warning is ‘Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC).’ Most blockchain, digital wallets, and internet security infrastructures, including Bitcoin, rely on this technology. Google researchers have confirmed that the quantum computation resources required to break this encryption have drastically decreased compared to previous estimates.
Traditional computers process all information in 0s and 1s, while quantum computers can handle 0s and 1s simultaneously. This single difference elevates the computation speed to an incomparable level.
The essence of cryptocurrency security is the ‘private key.’ This key is absolutely required to access a wallet and transfer assets. Current encryption design ensures that retracing this key with a traditional computer would take thousands of years. However, a quantum computer equipped with ‘Shor’s algorithm’ could complete this computation within a realistic timeframe. Google has verified that the threshold required for realization is lower than previously anticipated.
Security researchers call the point at which quantum computers can actually break existing encryption systems ‘Q-Day.’ Bitcoin security researcher Justin Drake, upon reviewing the Google research, said that the probability of Q-Day arriving by 2032 has increased to more than 10%. While it is less likely to occur before 2030, he added that it is time to start preparing immediately.
A probability of 10% might seem low. However, considering the digital assets worth trillions, the personal information of hundreds of millions, and the entire financial system at stake, 10% carries a different weight altogether. If Q-Day becomes a reality, Bitcoin wallet addresses with public records theoretically become hacking targets, and blockchain transaction signatures could be forged. The damage would not be limited to cryptocurrencies; internet security and the overall financial system would be simultaneously shaken.
Experts emphasize keeping calm. Constructing a large-scale quantum computer that operates reliably without errors is itself a significant engineering hurdle yet to be overcome. Sieve Shankar, CEO of Boundless, noted “the risk is growing, but this is an anticipated trend,” adding that “the world’s leading experts are addressing this issue.”
The Bitfinex analysis team assessed that “quantum computing presents a serious engineering challenge to the cryptocurrency industry, but its current level does not pose an existential threat.” The cryptocurrency industry has been aware from the start that its encryption basis is not permanent. The issue is not whether a crisis will occur, but whether preparation comes before or after.
The solution proposed by Google researchers is to transition to ‘Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC).’ The technology already exists. Possible immediate actions include replacing the encryption system of blockchain networks, discouraging the reuse of wallet addresses, and minimizing the exposure of public keys. Since a comprehensive internet security upgrade is necessary, this is not an issue exclusive to cryptocurrencies.