The controversy over the early retirement of the ISS raises questions about the future of space exploration. Is it a leap forward or a crisis?
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has made a bold proposal to end the operation of the International Space Station (ISS) three years earlier than planned in 2027 instead of 2030. Musk argues that the ISS has “served its original purpose” and asserts that resources should be focused on Mars exploration and deep space research rather than maintaining the ISS.
Musk’s statement carries implications beyond a mere schedule adjustment. Since its activation in 1998, the ISS has been a symbol of international cooperation, operated jointly by 15 countries, including the United States, Europe, Japan, and Russia. It is the only long-term habitation platform for humans to live and conduct research in space. However, Musk’s argument signals a need to “change the paradigm of space exploration.”
However, scientific and space industries are concerned that the ISS’s early retirement could affect international cooperation, scientific research, and space sustainability.
The current plan devised by NASA is to operate the ISS until 2030 before removing it from orbit in a controlled manner. In 2024, NASA plans to develop a U.S. Deorbit Vehicle (USDV) worth $843 million with SpaceX, aiming to re-enter and burn the ISS over the South Pacific.
Musk suggests advancing this schedule by three years to retire the ISS in 2027 and reinvest those resources and budgets into next-generation space projects like Mars exploration. He emphasizes that the ISS’s maintenance costs amount to $3 billion annually, which could be used more effectively to develop deep space exploration technologies.
Musk’s vision is straightforward. Instead of continuing ISS operations, humanity should innovate and invest in technological development for Mars habitation. SpaceX is currently in a practical preparation stage for Mars exploration through its next-generation spacecraft, the ‘Starship.’ He argues that leading future space exploration is more important than maintaining the ISS.
However, opponents point out that Musk’s proposal could disrupt international space collaboration and scientific research continuity.
The ISS is not just a scientific laboratory. It is a prime example of international cooperation, operated for over 20 years by the United States, Europe, Japan, Canada, and Russia. Over 3,300 scientific studies have been conducted at the ISS, including important projects such as new drug development, life science research, and examining the impact of space environments on the human body.
If early retirement becomes a reality, research conducted at the ISS may be abruptly halted or require significant changes in direction. This could cause serious cracks not only in scientific research but also in the international cooperation system.
Particularly, Russia is already pursuing the development of its independent space station ‘ROSS,’ while China accelerates its space exploration strategy by operating ‘Tiangong.’ If the ISS retires sooner than expected, Western countries may lose the center of joint space projects, leading to a scenario where countries act individually.
In a situation where NASA and other Western countries have not adequately prepared for alternatives after the ISS, early closure could result in transferring international space development leadership to China and Russia.
When ISS early retirement becomes a reality, another issue emerges: ‘space debris.’
Currently, there are over 30,000 pieces of satellite debris and space trash floating in Earth’s orbit, and dismantling the ISS could cause additional debris. NASA plans to use the USDV to safely enter the ISS into Earth’s atmosphere. However, dismantling large structures like the ISS is a technically challenging task.
If the ISS re-enters Earth in an uncontrolled manner, the debris could fall into densely populated areas, posing risks. Therefore, if early retirement is decided, a thorough review of the technological preparations for safe disposal is necessary.
As Musk’s proposal emerges as a realistic issue beyond mere debate, a cautious approach is required to decide the fate of the ISS. Rather than simply pondering ‘whether to retire or maintain,’ alternative solutions need to be considered simultaneously.
1. Gradual Retirement and Development of Next-Generation Space Stations
Instead of suddenly withdrawing the ISS, reducing operations incrementally while developing new commercial space stations could be a realistic alternative. Currently, several companies like Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman are working on next-generation space station projects that need to be accelerated.
2. Maintain International Cooperation System
Discussions are needed on how to maintain the international cooperation system after the ISS. Whether to operate a new station jointly or for each country to run independent stations should be agreed upon in advance.
3. Enhance Space Debris Management
If ISS early retirement is decided, developing technology and policies to solve space debris issues becomes essential. To this end, key space agencies such as NASA, ESA, and JAXA, along with private companies, should collaborate to develop technologies to protect the space environment.
The future of the ISS and the next steps in human space exploration
The ISS’s early retirement controversy is not merely a scheduling issue. It is intricately related to international cooperation, scientific research, and space environment issues.
Musk’s proposal is innovative, but it poses questions about whether the international community is ready to match his pace.
Moving towards the colossal goal of Mars exploration while considering the research achievements and cooperation values accumulated by the ISS over the past 25 years suggests that a gradual transition rather than a sudden closure might be a more realistic solution.
The international community now stands at a crucial crossroads. Will it maintain the ISS and continue international cooperation, or follow Musk’s vision to open a new era of space exploration? Future decisions will determine the direction of human space exploration.